It seems like everywhere you look people are making predictions for 2007.  Most of them claim to have successfully predicted any number of occurrences last year so it only makes sense that they'd do it again for this year.  I've been reading predictions for the better part of the past week and most are pretty generic.  The generic predictions are like horoscopes.  They're so general and broad that something almost has to fit.

The following three sets of predictions caught my eye and so I'm going to respond to each one.

Predictions 2007:  John Battelle's Searchblog (View the original article)

Microsoft will buy either AOL, Yahoo, or IAC:  I agree that Microsoft might buy AOL.  However, I don't think Microsoft will ever buy Yahoo.  And IAC?  That's not likely either.  Barry Diller isn't going to sell his company to Microsoft unless it includes The Moon.  Nope.  Not going to happen.

If Microsoft doesn't buy AOL, Yahoo will / AOL will go public:  I agree that this is possible.

A major media outlet will predict Web 2.0 to be over:  This one of those generic horoscope predictions.  Of course a major media outlet will predict this.  That being said, I don't see Web 2.0 in its current form being around too much longer anyway.  You can't make money off of MySpace and YouTube and all the similar sites.  You just can't.  The people using those services aren't there to search or read ads.  They're there to watch videos and read gossip.  These Web 2.0 sites generate a lot of traffic, yes.  But they themselves just won't generate money.

Google will integrate YouTube:  This one strikes me as 50/50.  It might happen.  It might not.  Regardless, though, it's an important development to watch because I think it will set the stage for how future Google acquisitions will play out.  If Google doesn't integrate YouTube, chances are it won't integrate any future purchases either.  So either way, we need to watch this.

Google Video Ads will disappoint until Q4 2007:  I agree.  But I'm going to take this prediction a little further.  As I've said, I think Panama will boost Yahoo's advertising sales growth to the point where people think Yahoo is making a comeback.  I think Yahoo's growth will even surpass Google's for a time, making people think Google is loosing the battle.  Eventually, though, that growth will stagnate.  In turn, Q4 2007 will be great for Google primarily because of the success of Google Video Ads.  People will start praising Google's success with Video Ads and the company's stock will go up another 50%.  But then comes 2008.  In 2008, advertisers will notice that their ROI from the Video Ads was lousy and start pulling money back out of the system.  In turn, Google's stock will fall.

Yahoo will not regain its luster;  Panama needs a year to gain traction; Yahoo will have 49ers style year:  I don't think Panama needs a year to take off.  It will take off much sooner than that.  But it won't last.  And the only thing wrong with the 49ers allusion is the fact that the 49ers ended up bumping a great team out at the end of the their year.  That won't happen here.  Yahoo isn't going to bump anyone out of the game with Panama.

eBay will have a major change in leadership:  I doubt it.  Meg is way too in control of that company.  She's done a great job growing it from a place to pawn off the stuff that didn't sell from your garage sale to what it is today.  The company won't get rid of her easily.

Amazon will continue to extend beyond ecommerce into services; the market will punish it:  I agree.  I've said it time again:  companies that succeed do a few things really, really well.  Very few companies can diversify well (I mentioned two earlier today).  Amazon should focus on what it does well and forget the other stuff.  Bezos needs to either be happy being the #1 internet retail site or he needs to separate his other ventures from the Amazon name.  Trying to use the clout behind Amazon.com won't help him but it could very well hurt Amazon.

There will be a "brief irrationa spurt of acquistions":  I agree that the acquisitions will take place.  But I won't call them all irrational.  Some companies could make these acquisitions work.  I mentioned a prime example earlier in the day:  Berkshire Hathaway.  Why?  Because they buy companies and then leave them alone.  The only thing a lot of these companies need is reach and infrastructure.  Acquisitions can provide that, assuming the company that buys them doesn't mess with the original business.

The pageview model will come under attack from AJAX and ad blockers:  I agree 100% with this one.  New metrics are certainly needed.

Blog 2.0 will become a reality:  Maybe for a handful of sites.  But that will only occur after thousands fail.  I think most internet users would rather drive an Accord that's not flashy but reliable as opposed to a Ferrari with a Ford Pinto engine in it.  Very few websites can pull off a "2.0-ing" without totally screwing things up.  Content is still relevant and if that content is accessible quickly and easily, the flash won't matter in the long run.

A major internet player will screw up the privacy/trust issue:  I agree.  I'll go one step further and predict that Google will do this.  Or, at least, the public will perceive some action of Google's as a major privacy/trust issue… whether it really is or not.

Mobile will connect to the web with major innovation:  I think mobile will continue to grow, but not to this extent.  Not in 2007, anyway.

Six Predictions for 2007:  ClickZ Expert Mark Kingdon (View the original article)

"Niche Social Media Sites Achieve Critical Mass":  I agree 100%.  If you can find a subject that people are passionate about, it will explode.

"The Time for Mobile Video Has Arrived":  Again, I think mobile video will grow.  But not to this degree in 2007.

"Interruptive Online Video Advertising Replaced by a User-Controlled Model":  I agree with this.  In fact, I've been talking about this for several weeks now.

"Confident Brands Will Turn Themselves Inside Out":  A new company might do something like this.  But I don't think "confident" or established brands will do a lot of "turning inside out".  New companies have nothing to lose and are more risky with their endeavors.  Established brands have too much to lose with an inside out turn.

"Growing the Talent Pool Becomes an Industry Imperative":  I agree and I hope this one comes to pass.

"Engaging Reach Emerges as a Mantra for Advertisers":  While I think this will eventually be the case, like the mobile explosion, I don't see it happening within the span of a year.

The year in preview:  Google goes evil; Mixed source rules; Microsoft buys Yahoo:  ZDNet's Larry Dignan (View the original article)

This set of predictions is the one I agree with more than any of the others.  In fact, I only have a couple of points to make about it:

• I agree with the assertion that Google will do evil.  They've already started to some degree, so what's to stop them from continuing?
• As I already said, I don't think Microsoft will buy Yahoo, but I do think Panama will be a short-term success.
• I agree that the Microsoft+Novell partnership will work out well for customers.
• I can't comment on the "cooling sales pitch gets cold" because I've never understood the reasoning behind the pitch in the first place.
• I agree that there will be some sort of cyber attack or major internet-based fallout this year.  We're just due for one by now.
• I also agree that IT spending will grow more than folks are predicting.  With more things going online and more things going digital, companies are going to have to have strong, fully-staffed IT departments to handle it all.
• As I said above, I agree that the pageview metric will be replaced with something else.  It is becoming more inaccurate with every passing day.
• "Software as a service goes offline"  Yep…  I completely agree.
• I'm not sure about Apple and the iPhone, but I do agree that such a phone would hurt carriers.  Do you know what else would hurt carriers that I'd love to see released in 2007?  A successful wi-fi phone!

What do you think about some of these predictions?  Have a few of your own?  Share them and we'll see how they pan out!